[thechat] better argument this time

[Luther, Ron]

Hi Javier,

Interesting article. However ... "my gut feeling" is that it is a case of
'good idea - wrong message' for two reasons:

(1) It seems to imply that 'gut feeling impressions of success' = 'success'.
I would argue that 'execution' is ultimately responsible for the success or
failure of a good idea.  There are a lot of people who could have (and there
probably are some that did) _fail_ in trying to start up a StarBucks-like
chain. I think it was the execution of the idea that brought in the big money.

(2) The article seems to devalue research and/or rational thinking. [Now I
could well be 'taking that personally' because I *did* spend a lot of years in
research.] But without research, the _flawed_ tribal knowledge of a company
doesn't get challenged and corrected. [Case in point: In the 60's the culture
at General Motors "knew" 'at a gut level' that young first time buyers bought
entry level Chevrolets.  As those buyers aged and became more affluent they
either stayed single and bought Pontiacs, or they had families and bought
Buicks and Oldsmobiles. Eventually the buyers became successful, retired, and
bought Cadillacs.  That was the product upgrade path and everybody in the
corporation "knew" it. As it turned out, it also happened to be quite wrong.]

Dr. Russell Ackoff, (the fellow at the Wharton School generally attributed to
inventing the 'systems approach' to problem solving ... and a pretty cool guy),
has long maintained that most big companies don't have the foggiest clue as to
why their customers buy their products and services.

I tend to agree with him. {If you get a chance to see his "There is no such
thing as a Marketing problem" video ... take it. It's good.) And if he's
right, I wouldn't see how the decisions based on 'gut feelings' that arise
from experience within a culture of misperceptions would be _better_ than
careful analysis.

RonL.

<rant>
A lot of Americans. A lot of American accountants. A lot of Ameican CPAs and
auditors believe in this myth they call 'the wash'.

"Oh well, sometimes it's a little over and sometimes it's a little under
... it's a wash."

There is no such mathematical theorem.

This is a 'gut feeling' that is simply wrong.
</rant>


-----Original Message-----
From: javier velasco [mailto:lists at mantruc.com]

How to Think With Your Gut
http://www.business2.com/articles/mag/print/0,1643,44584,00.html