[thechat] Anybody here?

deacon web at master.gen.in.us
Sat Apr 3 12:06:09 CST 2004


On 3 Apr 2004 at 3:22, Erik Mattheis wrote:

> I'm curious: Is anybody here at this time intending to vote for Bush in 
> Nov? How about non-US people? Anybody a supporter?

I'm a registered member of the Republican party. 

Not a diehard. When Mr. Nixon ran for re-election, I was so appalled 
by his leadership that I voted for Mr. McGovern. Otherwise, I've voted 
Republican in presidential elections. 

Not this year. There's no Republican running, just GWB, so I'll be 
holding my nose and voting for Mr. Kerry. 

Pennsylvania is traditionally a swing state. Philadelphia and Pittsburg 
are Democratic, and the rest of the state is pretty Republican. Mr. 
Bush has made something like 26 visits to the state, and considers 
Pennsylvania to be winnable, but from the comments I hear when I am 
out and about in this rural Republican county, I think he is dead wrong. 

Right now, both campaigns are advertising to those who've already 
made up their minds, and I assume that's to generate campaign 
contributions. And most states aren't really in play, anyway. At some 
point - say, about the first of September - Kerry really has to start 
hammering on the economy to undecided independents in about 10 
key states, and then about October 15, has to start hammering on the 
importance of getting the voter to the polls in those same 10 key 
states. 

If he does that, I think Kerry will get a modest victory in the electoral 
college, and a larger victory in popular vote. 

In the past, there often hasn't been a nickle's worth of difference 
between the Republican and Democrat candidates. You can't say 
that this time. But because of that, I don't think Bush can do much to 
affect this election. We already have a clear idea of who he is, and 
what he stands for, and you probably either like him or you don't. 
People don't know that much about Kerry, though. He not only has to 
articulate policies that people prefer, but present himself as a capable 
leader. An aggressive Bush campaign could actually make him look 
stronger for having survived it.

deke








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