[thechat] US prez debates

[Martin Burns]

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On 1 Oct 2004, at 15:39, deacon wrote:

>> The quick news nugget I heard this morning put Kerry at a slight win,
>> though a significant number (>15%) called it a draw. The next rounds
>> should be interesting.....
>
> The CBS poll was of a little more than 200 registered voters who were
> undecided. It was conducted by Knowledge Networks.
>
> Instead of letting people volunteer to be on the poll, they select
> neighborhoods, and then have the computer generate a random
> phone number. If it's *your* phone number, they camp on your
> telephone and mailbox until you agree to join the panel.

Which is all good methodology (although *how* the questions are
asked makes a fair sized difference)

One thing, though - the sample size is pretty small. See below for
margins of error

> Anyhow, after that introduction, the undecided voters polled by KN for
> CBS came up with
>      Kerry - 43% +/-9%
>      Bush - 28% +/- 8%
>      Tie - 29% +/- 8%

All at 95% confidence.

Therefore it's still within the margin of error, even without the tie 
people.

> Everybody says it's going to be the undecided voters who determine
> this election, because it's so close, and from my seat, I'd say that 
> it's
> the people who decided it would be a tie that are still in the catbird
> seat.

I'd say so.

Cheers
Martin
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