[thelist] Flash stats.

Ben Dyer ben_dyer at imaginuity.com
Fri May 11 08:57:32 CDT 2001

At 05:52 PM 5/10/2001, you wrote:
>At 05:39 PM 5/10/01 -0500, Ben wrote:
>>>As far 4.2% being low, doesn't that pretty much jive with the market
>>>penetration rate?
>>Only if you base market penetration on new computer sales (like the 
>>industry does - which is wrong).  If you count installed base, Macintosh 
>>penetration is much higher (because people generally use Macs longer than 
>>they use PCs, although this is changing).  I have no numbers but it's 
>>closer to 10% than 5%.
>This isn't correct either.  If over the course of 5 years you use 1 Mac 
>and I use 2 PC's (serially, not in parallel) then it doesn't matter that 
>you are using your machine longer, the penetration would be the same: 1 
>Mac, 1 PC.  Penetration rates would have to be figured (roughly) by 
>calculating the percentage of 1st time computer buyers for each platform 
>and the percentage of people buying computers who are switching 
>platforms.  These are the only people who will change the penetration 
>rates.  That being said, one the big to-do's with the Imac was that Apple 
>for the first time in years had a machine that attracted first time 
>computer users and attracted some Wintel converts.  Now given the overall 
>number of people who own computers, those gains represent a fairly small 
>percentage.  But at least it was something.

Let's look at it this way.  I'll use your example.  At Year 1, say you 
bought a Dell.  Well, then Dell market share was 50% and Apple market share 
was 50%.  But at Year (let's say) 3 you bought another Dell.  Then Dell 
market share is 100% (or, even if you are factoring in prior years - which 
some don't, technically it's 66%).

It seems to me that most numbers are based on total sold rather than total 
used (which is basically impossible to determine).

Found this article from a month ago:
Yeah, it's a bit Mac-biased, but it raises some interesting points.


Ben Dyer
Senior Internet Developer
Imaginuity Interactive

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