Does web design have a future in 'high wage' countries? (was RE:[thelist] RE: Template Monster [WAS: A Beginner Freelance Question])

[RUST Randal]

Joel D Canfield wrote:

> I really love web and database work, but in the last year, 
> I've realized I don't have the time to develop *great* design 
> skills, and I don't want to spend the rest of my life 
> struggling with mediocrity. 

Isn't there a way to focus on some aspect that you really enjoy?

> As is common in economic circles, 
> web dev will polarize into inexpensive, badly designed sites, 
> and expensive, well-designed sites.

I agree with this, but have a different angle on it. I work for a
medium-sized consultant. Over the past few years, a lot of work has
dried up. Organizations can't afford or don't want expensive
enterprise-level applications anymore. They want efficient, affordable,
customizable, off-the-shelf solutions. The big vendors like Oracle, IBM
and Microsoft have put a lot of R & D money into creating software
packages for lines of business that meet these needs, which essentially
squeezes the mid-level consultant out of the picture.

Within five years, I think you're going to see that there are two types
of Web application developers: 

1. The enterprise level, which will consist only of the large vendors,
because they can afford to keep the costs of the applications at an
affordable level.

2. The small business level. This is where small teams of 5-8 people
will really be able to do well. But that team has to work well together
and have the necessary experience.

In either scenario, user interface design will be necessary, but it will
be less important on the enterprise level. That's the way it is now, and
probably how it always will be. But there won't be any more mid-level
consultants that build Web applications. They can't do it for the right
price, because everything is built from scratch (despite all efforts to
create reusable components).

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Randal Rust
Covansys Corp.
Columbus, OH