[thechat] better argument this time

[Madhu Menon]

At 07:00 PM 08-01-03, javier velasco wrote:
>they discovered that the harder teh proble, the less useful rational
>thought becomes, just to quote one phrase:

I've not read the article yet, but are you really saying that spirituality
will help people make better decisions?

Of course, there are times when all variables aren't known. That doesn't
mean that thinking isn't required.
What is usually called instinct is just your brain working and deciding
really fast from having done that kind of thing many times before, and
hence drawing on your experience. You don't see many 20 somethings as Army
Generals, do you? When you get a gut feel, it's usually based on
*something* you know.

There's an inherent flaw of selective thinking (
http://www.skepdic.com/selectiv.html ) when magazine articles like these
are published. Sure, they'll point out all the successes from following
your gut, but never about the failures. All those TV shows that get
cancelled after the first season were also probably born from someone's gut
feel. All those dotcoms that got burnt were also the product of someone's
"intuition". More businesses fail than succeed, and learning from failure
can be just as useful.

[update: just read halfway through the article]

OK, this article has so many holes that it would take a LONG time to blow
it to bits. So many straw man arguments. Maybe some other time.

Here's an example:

>The notion that people always act rationally and in their own interest is
>a pillar of economic theory. So it's interesting that a group of
>economists, led by the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler, should
>contribute some of the most damning evidence of people's proclivity for
>irrational decisions. Building on work by Princeton psychologists Daniel
>Kahneman and Amos Tversky, these so-called behavioral economists have
>shown not only that many of our economic decisions are irrational, but
>also that our waywardness is predictable.

Gee... some people don't think rationally. Wow, what a revelation!
Therefore rational thought is bad? What kind of stupid argument is that?

"Thomas A. Stewart is the editorial director of Business 2.com."

Oooh, better stay away from Business2.com from now. ;)

They're pitching intuition as an alternative to rational thinking, when in
fact, it's just an extension. When decisions have to be made in a hurry and
you don't have complete data, you consider probabilities. Those probability
calculations are usually based on experience and rational analysis.

What's all this got to do with spirituality (or ham), Javi? (That was your
original argument, no?)

Regards,

Madhu

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