[thechat] World Cup predictions

[evolt at funkwit.com]

Madhu wrote:
> Well, the prelim rounds are almost over, so let's hear your predictions
> about the semi-finals and the finals of the World Cup.

Well, I think my predictions beforehand can be largely thrown out. I tried to
avoid picking Australia because, hey, it's no fun tipping the obvious choice;
but realistically, they'll be very hard to beat. They're just steamrolling
anyone in their path. For any other side in the comp, the loss of a player like
Warne would destroy the team; the Australians haven't even noticed he's gone.

I think the biggest problem with the other teams is (and has been for a while)
their inconsistency. India (one of my tips) are shaping up as a threat despite
this, though, especially with their punishing of Pakistan. Tendulkar is in fine
form, and he really is a delight to watch. I'm not familiar with his recent form
(and hence his omission), but I can't help but think that VVS Laxman should be
in the side: a little more batting depth wouldn't go astray. India's bowling is
perhaps a little weak (from what I've seen, at least). This is disappointing not
least because Harbhajan Singh is (in my opinion) one of the best one-day bowlers
in the world, when he's on his game, but unfortunately he hasn't impressed me
this time round.

My other tip, New Zealand, would be looking a lot more impressive without the
forfeit to Kenya; but even so, they looked outclassed against Sri Lanka, and
will struggle if they make the sixes.

It's great to see Kenya quite possibly make the finals, and even more
entertaining to see that South Africa might not make it at all (sorry to any
South Africans reading, but it is kinda cool).

So anyway... predictions. Assume for the moment that Australia beat England
(looks like a fairly good bet at the moment, England now 8 out). Group A
finalists are Australia / India, I'll tip Pakistan to smash Zimbabwe and grab
the third spot (not necessarily a safe bet, but I like to live dangerously).

Group B have been the surprise packets, but Sri Lanka should be safe. Kenya may
well squeak through. I'll say Sri Lanka will beat South Africa (again, dangerous
tip), keeping SA out. New Zealand will then beat Canada, giving them the third
spot. That makes the 'super six':

Australia
India
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Kenya
New Zealand

Australia will certainly make the finals; India's carrying-over the the points
for the win against Pakistan will get them through. New Zealand are as good as
out, having needed the points against Sri Lanka and Kenya; Pakistan likewise
with Australia and India. That leaves Australia / India / Sri Lanka / Kenya as
the semifinalists, Kenya's points against SL and New Zealand getting them
through even though they're far from a top-four-in-the-world side by anyone's
reckoning.

Let's say that leaves Australia/Kenya and India/SL as the semi-finalists. The
first is easy to pick, the second less so: but I'll give it India. (I hate
tipping Sri Lanka, because whenever you stake anything on them winning they'll
lose.)

That leaves an Australia/India final, which Australia will of course win
comfortably.

That detailed enough for everyone?

(of course, now you can look forward to seeing an England vs. South Africa
final, just to make me look stupid)

Paul