[thechat] Election Sweepstake

[Ben Dyer]

Electoral College: Obama wins 364-174, I expect him to pick up every swing
state but Indiana and I don't expect him to pick up any longshots that some
people have said might be in play (WV, GA, ND, MT).

Popular vote will be closer, but Obama will probably have a +5% win.

Senate is a lot harder to predict.  Currently, it's 49:49 with 2
independents who typically vote Democratic. Dems will almost certainly pick
up four seats and probably two more.  The two races that everyone seems to
be watching are Al Franken in Minnesota and that crook Ted Stevens in Alaska
who is running despite being on trial on federal corruption charges.  The
Minnesota race is a tossup, but trends towards Franken.  The Alaska race is
a complete tossup but will surely be heavily influenced by the outcome of
the trial, should it happen before Election Day.

So, throwing out those two races, I'll guess 55:43, with the same 2
independents. (So, effectively, 57:43.)

--Ben

--
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On Sun, Oct 26, 2008 at 2:37 PM, Martin Burns <martin at easyweb.co.uk> wrote:

> OK, since Twitterites have failed to take me up on this:
>
> What are your predictions for:
>
> President:
> winner & electoral college total for the winner
> (eg: Obama: 300)
> overall Popular vote margin (eg: +6% Obama)
>
> Senate: Overall seats (eg: 55:45 Democrat)
>
>
> Cheers
> Martin
> --
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