[thechat] Election Sweepstake

[Martin Burns]

On 26 Oct 2008, at 19:37, Martin Burns wrote:

> President:
> winner & electoral college total for the winner
> (eg: Obama: 300)

Obama: 376

Based on Kerry States, plus:
IA, OH, VA, NC, NM, CO, FL, MO & ND

I think there's an outside chance in GA, but it's about as likely as  
McCain holding IN, so I'm calling Obama in IN from spillover from IL  
and McCain in GA.

The other factor is the people in MT, SD, AR, WV and LA who've all got  
incumbent Dem Senators up for re-election. There may be an impact of  
riding the national trend, and just marking the Dem candidates all the  
way down the ballot. So I think there's a better than even chance that  
*one* of them will go, probably

> overall Popular vote margin (eg: +6% Obama)

National polling momentum suggests Obama topping out at about 53/54.  
But if the polling from strong Obama states with big populations like  
NY (+31%) & CA (+27%) is true, then the margin there will be  
astounding, biasing the overall popular vote. Particularly as the only  
McCain states with that kind of margin are relatively low populations  
like ID and OK.

So I'm going out on a limb and plumping for +16%.

> Senate: Overall seats (eg: 55:45 Democrat)


AK: It's been a tie all throughout, and I think incumbency and Palin  
will be the advantage. Unless the impending trial kicks off.
MN: Barkley is eating into both candidates, making it very hard to  
call. Franken, just.
NC: Dear old Liddy I think is going to be a victim of national  
momentum and dissatisfaction with the Republican brand
OR: Obama is running +19%, so I think coat-tails will prevail
NM: Safely flipping
VA: Safely flipping
LA: Katrina aftermath is still ongoing, so Dem, despite the  
presidential polling

GA: Waaaay many undecideds at this point. I think they're  
predominantly Republicans who'll stay home. If the ground game in GA  
is strong enough to get out the Dem vote (and it should be, given the  
money and attention it's getting, plus strong early voting), it might  
just flip, if not next week, then in a run-off in December.
MS: Still loyal Republican country, so both staying Red, but Wicker's  
the vulnerable one.
KY: Another tight one; depends on how the economy plays in the next  
few days, but I think incumbency will keep it Red

Total: 57:43 Democrat (including Lieberman & Sanders)

Of course, this is all barring dramatic events intervening.

Cheers
Martin

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